US Elections: Referendum on Trump’s presidency? - Rabobank

Gladys Abbott
November 6, 2018

Happy Election Day! Voters of all stripes are anxiously awaiting election results.

However, thunderstorms are forecast for Tuesday along the eastern coast, as well as snowstorms in the Midwest, which could affect turnout.

"It will also mean that the Democrats will have the power to conduct oversight and investigations of the Trump presidency, his campaign, and the man himself, in a way that may end up being politically damaging for the president", he said. He added: "The Democrat agenda is a socialist nightmare".

"This election is especially important to Texas, to the country, because if Democrats win District 7, Nancy Pelosi will be speaker of the House", Culberson said. "It's an awakening of the Democratic Party".

Democrats need 23 votes to flip the House and two votes to take control of the Senate. But 23 is no sure thing: polls suggest their leads are narrow in numerous seats that could push them into the mid-20s or even the mid-30s.

Stirring fear of foreigners and trumpeting American nationalism worked for Trump in his 2016 election victory against the Democrats' establishment candidate Hillary Clinton.

The party hopes younger voters, suburban moderates and minorities will be drawn to the polls to react against the president's rhetoric.

Since Trump's surprise November 2016 election, his family has faced criticism that its portfolio of real estate and consumer goods businesses, which lean heavily on the Trump name, conflicts with its Washington roles.

Three states could elect their first African-American governors, while several others are running LGBT candidates and Muslims.

Americans are going to the polls to vote on all 435 seats in the House, 35 of the 100 Senate seats and dozens of state governors. "They've really become radicalised". "You're going to see the largest gender gap we've ever seen".

Even veteran observers of USA campaigns find it all a little bewildering. The demographic shifts also reflect each party's closing argument.

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Trump's remarks included ominous references to the "Antifa" far-left-leaning terrorist groups and a migrant caravan marching toward the U.S. -Mexico border that he has called an "invasion".

The president spoke to reporters on the airport tarmac here alongside Donnelly's opponent, Republican Mike Braun, ensuring he would get his picture on TV and in the papers.

"Health care is on the ballot", former President Barack Obama told Democratic volunteers in Virginia. "You have to go out and vote".

Tuesday's results will be colored by the dramatically different landscapes in the fight for the House and Senate.

Such an occurrence has happened twice in midterm election years when Republicans held the presidency and the two chambers of Congress, and in both cases it was bad news for stocks. He is already talking about making deals with Democrats on infrastructure, something that could leave Republicans on the sidelines.

"I think they will be both miserable and emboldened", says Rove.

"I don't care", he told reporters as he arrived in IN for a campaign rally. Republican Gov. Charlie Baker appears to be headed for an easy re-election win in deep blue MA, possibly besting the 71 percent vote total that former Gov. William F. Weld garnered in 1994.

He said those lawmakers could use their committees to investigate everything from potential impeachment of President Trump to Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh's confirmation testimony to possible Russian collusion. "She wants the power back", Chaffetz said. "That's why our economy is growing like it is".

On the other hand, if Republicans maintain control of the House and Senate, they will have bucked history and delivered a major blow to the Democratic Party.

They face a far more hard challenge in the Senate, where they are nearly exclusively on defence in rural states where Trump remains popular.

However, the polls slightly favour Democrats in both those toss-up senate races, according to the statistical analysis site FiveThirtyEight.

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