The Trump referendum: Possible lessons from 2018 midterms

Faith Castro
November 6, 2018

Follow Live coverage, results and analysis of the USA midterm elections on from 9am Wednesday. Polls show Democrats on Tuesday should win the 23 seats they need to assume control of the House of Representatives and perhaps as many as 15 or 20 seats beyond that. "But I can tell you I would not be calling Homeland Security, the Federal Bureau of Investigation and the GBI unless we had information that we needed them to look at".

Among likely voters, 50 percent prefer a Democratic Congress, while 43 percent prefer a Republican Congress, according to the final Wall Street Journal-NBC poll before the election, released Sunday morning. That's unlikely, by all accounts, because the map is so friendly for the GOP.

"So it's how high of a priorty will it be for President Trump, what is he willing to trade, and what are Democrats willing to ask for in order to give the president a victory on this particular trade deal". Around 30 races considered tossups by the Cook Political Report are still "startlingly close", according to interviews carried out by the Times and Siena College.

"But no one should be surprised if they win only win 19 seats and no one should be surprised if they win 51 seats".

Democrats told us 2 percent economic growth was the "new normal"; that manufacturing jobs weren't going to return to the country, that there was little that could be done about radical Islamic terrorism - all of which was a lie.

While President Donald Trump is not on the ballot, the most polarizing USA president for decades has put himself at the center of every issue. If the map were anywhere close to neutral, and the environment were as it is, Democrats would be virtually guaranteed a House takeover right now. "Just even the fact of it being so much, is it simply a matter that early votes have expanded?"

In the Georgia race in the Atlanta suburbs, Democrat Lucy McBath had a $150,000 fundraising edge over the one-term Handel, forcing the national congressional campaign committee to come in with a final ad buy in a district President Trump narrowly carried. And a status-quo election would actually set up Democrats very well to take over the chamber when they have much better opportunities in 2020 and 2022.

"What the President might say, or tweet, or attribute this blue wave to ..."

In the run-up to Tuesday's vote Trump has sent thousands of soldiers to the Mexican border, suggested that illegal immigrants who throw stones should be shot and told Americans that the Democrats would turn the country into a crime-and-drugs black hole.

Of those, 26 are already held by Democrats, which is why many are tipping Republicans to retain their slim majority. Forty-five percent (45%) would vote for the Democrat. Thomas Croci, a fellow Republican, in the 3rd Senate District. But 23 is no sure thing: polls suggest their leads are narrow in numerous seats that could push them into the mid-20s or even the mid-30s.

The Democratic incumbent in North Dakota, senator Heidi Heitkamp, is significantly trailing Republican challenger Kevin Cramer in the polls.

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Democrats painted sharp distinctions with Trump, insisting that only they will protect the health care gains made under Obama, that Trump has employed inhumane measures to keep migrants out, and that the divisiveness he has fostered must end.

Republicans now lead among men and those 40 and over. Bloomberg photo by Aaron P. Bernstein. The new interpretation will govern how the U.S. government considers migrants' use of nearly any government benefit as criteria for determining who may enter or remain in the United States.

What it would mean: This would be a clear repudiation of Trump, and there would be no other way to spin it. Races in Tuesday's election are being held within new boundaries drawn by the court's Democratic majority.

A slim Republican majority in the House would also present challenges, likely inflaming simmering intraparty disputes. A vindicated Trump may double down on those divisive politics at home.

How it would happen: Speaking of small but substantial possibilities, that's what Republicans have when it comes to holding the House. It could result in states such as Nevada or even Arizona staying under GOP control and deliver states like Florida, Indiana, Missouri and Montana.

If the Republicans win these key states, it's a vote of confidence for Trump.

Republicans believe those issues, will help maintain control of the Senate. "We are not going to stand for it". Trump warned Americans would "lose all of their money" if the GOP was defeated because the stock market could take a hit.

The political realignment, if it solidifies, could reshape United States politics for a generation. For Gregoire and Kanter, and for voters across the country, the election represents something far greater than whatever Senate and House races appear on their ballots.

Democrats also lead in terms of fund-raising, by roughly $1 billion to $700 million.

A slightly longer answer notes that we can point to certain factors likely to be significant on election day that are encouraging for Democrats.

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