Chance for tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico

Frederick Owens
May 14, 2018

The NHC now has this system's chances of reaching tropical storm strength (over 39 MPH) at 30% through the next 2 days and a medium chance at 40% over the next 5 days. While hurricane season won't begin until June 1 for the Gulf and Atlantic Basin, tropical systems have developed in May.

More widespread showers and storms started moving in across South Florida on Sunday morning, especially in the lower Florida Keys.

There is a large area of clouds and rain in the Gulf of Mexico near Cuba.

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Even if tropical formation does develop, this system is expected to stay well to the west along the Florida Peninsula and Panhandle region. The system could gain subtropical or tropical characteristics, says the NWS report, while it moves east the next few days.

And that means heavy rains and gusty winds are possible over portions of the Bahamas and South Florida through this weekend.

We will continue to keep you updated on-air and online on this developing system. I can't rule out a strong thunderstorm; however, no organized severe weather is expected. It is likely that we continue to see rain on and off through the rest of Tuesday, and still on and off into the weekend.

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