Poll shows Conservative lead slashed to 3 points

Gladys Abbott
June 5, 2017

There's more bad news for the Prime Minister too - her personal poll approval lead over Jeremy Corbyn has shrunk to 13 points, a four point drop from the end of last week.

The pound fell by more than 0.5% on Wednesday morning before recovering some losses.

May called the election three years early in a bid to strengthen her slender majority in parliament going into the Brexit talks.

We have been keeping a very close eye on the betting markets in the run up to the UK General Election, and one thing we have noticed is that the odds on a Conservative win have been fluctuating like mad!

The 2015 election led to the first majority Conservative government for 18 years - and she would have thrown that power away in the space of two years. Just under a third - 30 per cent of people say they would prefer the Labour leader as prime minister to 43 per cent backing May.

Even if he partnered up with the Scottish National Party, the Liberal Democrats, the Greens and Plaid Cymru, YouGov shows the seat tally for the so-called "Progressive Alliance" would be 321 - still short of a majority.

The YouGov data suggested the Conservative Party could lose up to 20 of the 330 seats it holds in the current Parliament, with Labour gaining almost 30 seats.

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The headline figures certainly stand out given previous assumptions and polling data pointing to the Conservatives securing a majority.

The Panelbase poll, conducted between May 19-23 showed the Conservatives winning 48 percent of the vote in June 8 elections, with Labour on 33 percent.

The Prime Minister was asked if she would resign if the Conservatives lost their majority next week. Analysts at the United States bank believe that a coalition of center-left parties would lead to a "soft" Brexit (preserving privileged access to the EU's single market and not clamping down so hard on immigration), which might be better for the UK economy and its currency (paywall).

Corbyn is clearly relishing the apparent growing sense of unease among voters that May might not be the tough leader she and her party have claimed and which has been a central feature of the party's election campaign so far.

Sensing the momentum, Corbyn made a last-minute decision to attend a live television debate on Wednesday with other party leaders - and challenged May to join him.

Kathleen Brooks, research director at City Index Direct, added: "At this late stage of the United Kingdom election campaign, the pollsters are more divided on the size of the Conservative Party's lead than at any other time during the election".

Speculation has increased over the possibility of a hung parliament and that would catastrophic to the fortunes of the Pound and negotiations with the European Union over the Brexit deal.

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