Who could be at risk for higher premiums under GOP?

Frederick Owens
May 19, 2017

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A handful of conservative senators are pushing for steep cuts to Medicaid, but face a formidable obstacle from Republican senators in states that participated in Obamacare's Medicaid expansion program. A 60-year-old with the same income, meanwhile, would see premiums go up 46% from the Affordable Care Act to $7,430 after the $4,000 tax credit under the American Health Care Act.

That's because the AHCA cuts $880 billion from Medicaid over a 10-year period.

Democratic candidates are on the attack, and Republicans are dissembling.

According to the study, by the end of 2016, the uninsurance rate in the two expansion states (Kentucky and Arkansas) had dropped by more than 20 percentage points relative to Texas.

"Whenever you have something as complicated as health care, you're going to have winners and losers". This option is not available if you live in Washington, D.C. or Vermont.

Kaiser's projections were based on the most recent National Health Interview Survey and the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, which can be used to estimate various health conditions. Any costs above that threshold would fall completely on the states.

Also, the legislation that brought us the ACA ramped down disproportionate share funding, and of course, safety net hospitals opposed that.

Obamacare expanded Medicaid to include health care for millions of low-income Americans, driving down the number of uninsured citizens.

I'm told that more moderate Republicans, personified by Ohio Sen.

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The American College of Surgeons, consisting of more than 80,000 members, didn't formally oppose the House bill. I'm not sure all of those are bad things.

Herrera Beutler was concerned about the proposed Medicaid cutbacks and impacts on children.

Because those populations are cheaper to cover, the program's per-person growth has been artificially low.

The AHCA plan was a poor attempt to change parts of the ACA and obviously was created to allow the Republicans to say they did something to repeal and replace Obamacare.

Either way, Medicaid is looking at a significant cut.

New Hampshire's health insurance marketplace continues to fare well compared to other states struggling in the face of uncertainties about the future of the Affordable Care Act, since all four companies now selling policies in New Hampshire have applied to do so again next year. But parents in Florida saw even greater gains, with the uninsured rate dropping by almost eight percentage points, from almost 25 percent in 2013 to about 17 per cent in 2015.

Despite the concerns, Toomey said Medicaid spending - $338 billion this fiscal year - is growing at an unsustainable rate. The current version of the AHCA, which was passed by the House in early May, would limit Medicaid expansion in states and change the way the federal government doles out the Medicaid funding to states from issuing matching funds to using a per-capita formula or issuing states a block grant instead.

One other outcome: Spending caps could also make it more hard for Medicaid to cover unexpected disease outbreaks or a new breakthrough treatment.

To pay for the single-payer system, [an advocate] suggested that NY create a new tax on dividends, interest, and capital gains that would range from 9 percent to 16 percent, depending on how much investment income an individual reports, and a new payroll tax that would similarly range from 9 percent to 16 percent depending on an individual's income.

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